Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Allen won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Brendan Allen
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-400
(80%)
40
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Brendan AllenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24L
vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25W
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricBrendan Allen
3.28
Strikes / min
3.59
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
52%
Strike defense
47%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
1.56
82%
Takedown defense
56%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyBrendan Allen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-90.590.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Brendan Allen
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18