Middleweight
3 Rounds
Julian Marquez won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, April 10, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsJulian Marquez: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Julian Marquez wins(55.5%)
Actual result: Julian Marquez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Julian Marquez
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
40
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Julian MarquezL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22L
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23L
KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24L
KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricJulian Marquez
3.28
Strikes / min
5.06
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
5.35
52%
Strike defense
50%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
82%
Takedown defense
54%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyJulian Marquez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-11.211.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+280.0-280.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Julian Marquez
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8