Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 27, 2016·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kevin Casey has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Casey
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
40
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Kevin Casey
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15L
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricKevin Casey
3.28
Strikes / min
2.27
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
52%
Strike defense
46%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
0.79
82%
Takedown defense
27%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyKevin Casey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.7-35.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-165.0165.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Kevin Casey
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4