Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 5, 2017·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsRashad Evans: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(61.8%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Rashad Evans has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Rashad Evans
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
40
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Rashad EvansL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricRashad Evans
3.28
Strikes / min
2.14
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
52%
Strike defense
63%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
2.98
82%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyRashad Evans
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Rashad Evans
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12