Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 22, 2018·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(62.5%)
Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rogerio Nogueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
40
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Rogerio NogueiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricRogerio Nogueira
3.28
Strikes / min
2.43
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
52%
Strike defense
59%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
0.64
82%
Takedown defense
62%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam AlveyRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.4-81.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-559.0559.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12