Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sam Patterson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2024·Manchester, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsKiefer Crosbie: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Sam Patterson wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Patterson threatens submissions; Kiefer Crosbie has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kiefer Crosbie (52.9%).
- Sam Patterson has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sam Patterson
Red Corner
VS
Kiefer Crosbie
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
30
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
5'11"
198.12 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam Patterson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Yanal Ashmouz · Mar 23W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26Kiefer CrosbieL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Jousset · Sep 23L
KOvs Taiyilake Nueraji · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam PattersonMetricKiefer Crosbie
2.62
Strikes / min
4.46
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
5.80
50%
Strike defense
46%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
0.00
33%
Takedown defense
40%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-1.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam PattersonKiefer Crosbie
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Patterson(6 fights)Kiefer Crosbie(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6
Kiefer Crosbie
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3