Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sam Patterson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 6, 2025·Paris, Ile-de-France, France, France
Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsTrey Waters: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Trey Waters wins(58.2%)
Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trey Waters has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sam Patterson
Red Corner
VS
Trey Waters
Blue Corner
-194
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+162
(38%)
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
198.12 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam Patterson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Yanal Ashmouz · Mar 23W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26Trey WatersW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Josh Quinlan · Apr 23W
vs Billy Ray Goff · May 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam PattersonMetricTrey Waters
2.62
Strikes / min
6.39
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
5.83
50%
Strike defense
55%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
0.40
33%
Takedown defense
85%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam PattersonTrey Waters
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Patterson(6 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.70.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-294.0294.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6
Trey Waters
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3