Lightweight
3 Rounds
Yanal Ashmouz won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz wins(60.7%)
Actual result: Yanal Ashmouz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yanal Ashmouz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Yanal Ashmouz has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Sam Patterson has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sam Patterson
Red Corner
VS
Yanal Ashmouz
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'9"
198.12 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam Patterson
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26Yanal Ashmouz
oldest →latest
L
vs Chris Duncan · Jul 23W
vs Trevor Peek · Sep 24L
vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam PattersonMetricYanal Ashmouz
2.62
Strikes / min
2.88
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
50%
Strike defense
50%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
3.24
33%
Takedown defense
64%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sam PattersonYanal Ashmouz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Patterson(6 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6
Yanal Ashmouz
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4