Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Marion Reneau threatens submissions; Sara McMann has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Marion Reneau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sara McMann
oldest →W
SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17L
SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17W
vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21 Marion ReneauL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19L
vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20L
vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21L
KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sara McMannMetricMarion Reneau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sara McMannMarion Reneau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sara McMann(10 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +91.4|Blue -91.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sara McMannTargetMarion Reneau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sara McMann edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control4:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Marion Reneau edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:10
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
