Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sean Brady won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 2, 2023·Austin, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupSean Brady: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(68.0%)
Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sean Brady threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Sean Brady has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Sean Brady
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
33
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sean Brady
oldest →latest
W
vs Michael Chiesa · Nov 21L
KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22W
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24W
SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25L
KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
L
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 21W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sean BradyMetricKelvin Gastelum
4.08
Strikes / min
3.65
2.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
59%
Strike defense
57%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
1.04
86%
Takedown defense
60%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.31Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sean BradyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sean Brady(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.6-15.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Sean Brady
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24