Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 22, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(59.4%)
Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sergei Pavlovich
Red Corner
VS
Curtis Blaydes
Blue Corner
+112
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-132
(57%)
34
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
213.36 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 22L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Curtis Blaydes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Mar 22W
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergei PavlovichMetricCurtis Blaydes
4.43
Strikes / min
4.18
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
5.12
75%
Takedown defense
35%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sergei PavlovichCurtis Blaydes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-58.258.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11
Curtis Blaydes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19