Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 1, 2025·Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia
Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(65.1%)
Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sergei Pavlovich
Red Corner
VS
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
34
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
213.36 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergei Pavlovich
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 22W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Jairzinho RozenstruikW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22L
SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23W
KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24W
vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergei PavlovichMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik
4.43
Strikes / min
3.48
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
55%
Strike defense
52%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sergei PavlovichJairzinho Rozenstruik
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.85.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15