Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2023·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sergei Pavlovich
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
34
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
213.36 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 22W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergei PavlovichMetricTom Aspinall
4.43
Strikes / min
7.63
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
55%
Strike defense
56%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
2.62
75%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81Δ 3.20 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.2-7.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10