Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Moraes won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2013·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sergio Moraes has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sergio Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Neil Magny
Blue Corner
-161
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+151
(40%)
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19Neil Magny
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergio MoraesMetricNeil Magny
2.42
Strikes / min
3.40
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
59%
Strike defense
51%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
2.17
75%
Takedown defense
55%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap+0.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sergio MoraesNeil Magny
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Sergio Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13
Neil Magny
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37