Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sergio Moraes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19 Zak Ottow
oldest →L
KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17L
KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18W
vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18L
KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergio MoraesMetricZak Ottow
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.31Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sergio MoraesZak Ottow
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -114.3|Blue +114.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +296.0|Blue -296.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sergio MoraesTargetZak Ottow
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control3:20
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Zak Ottow edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Zak Ottow edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:45
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
