Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Moraes won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2016·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sergio Moraes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Sergio Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Zak Ottow
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19Zak Ottow
oldest →latest
L
vs Li Jingliang · Nov 17W
KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18L
KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18W
vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18L
KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergio MoraesMetricZak Ottow
2.42
Strikes / min
2.63
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.73
59%
Strike defense
58%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.97
75%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Sergio MoraesZak Ottow
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+39.4-39.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+296.0-296.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Sergio Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13
Zak Ottow
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8