Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brian Melancon won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 6, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(62.8%)
Actual result: Brian Melancon wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brian Melancon is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Brian Melancon has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brian Melancon has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Seth Baczynski
Red Corner
VS
Brian Melancon
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
44
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15Brian Melancon
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Aug 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Seth BaczynskiMetricBrian Melancon
3.08
Strikes / min
4.18
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.64
51%
Strike defense
64%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
2.02
48%
Takedown defense
66%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Seth BaczynskiBrian Melancon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Brian Melancon(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.7-36.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.548.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Seth Baczynski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
Brian Melancon
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2