Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Shamil Abdurakhimov wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost 83% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-350
(78%)
44
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Shamil AbdurakhimovL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19L
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Shamil AbdurakhimovMetricSergei Pavlovich
2.41
Strikes / min
4.43
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
55%
Strike defense
55%
1.01
TDs / 15 min
0.48
45%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.61Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Shamil AbdurakhimovSergei Pavlovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.01.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-700.0700.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Shamil Abdurakhimov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights11
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11