Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO
SD
CO
Shana DobsonvsCasey O'Neill
UFC Event · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Shana Dobson wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey O'Neill is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shana Dobson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Casey O'Neill has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Shana Dobson
Red Corner
VS
Casey O'Neill
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
37
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Shana Dobson
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17L
vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18L
vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19L
KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20W
KOvs Mariya Agapova · Aug 20Casey O'NeillW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23L
SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23W
vs Luana Santos · Aug 24W
KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Shana DobsonMetricCasey O'Neill
3.34
Strikes / min
7.89
5.20
Strikes absorbed / min
5.53
50%
Strike defense
57%
0.84
TDs / 15 min
1.40
14%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.86Δ 4.22 — meaningful gap+2.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Shana DobsonCasey O'Neill
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Shana Dobson(6 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.416.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.349.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.949.9
Shana Dobson
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6
Casey O'Neill
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8