Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 11, 2011·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupShane Carwin: Pressure fightervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Shane Carwin wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Shane Carwin is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Junior Dos Santos has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Shane Carwin
Red Corner
VS
Junior Dos Santos
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
51
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Shane Carwin
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 10L
SUBvs Brock Lesnar · Jul 10Junior Dos SantosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Shane CarwinMetricJunior Dos Santos
4.38
Strikes / min
4.49
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.33
53%
Strike defense
56%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.30
42%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Shane CarwinJunior Dos Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Shane Carwin(3 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-27.527.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Shane Carwin
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights3
Junior Dos Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19