Welterweight
3 Rounds
Shavkat Rakhmonov won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, December 7, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grapplervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ian Machado Garry enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Red Corner
VS
Ian Machado Garry
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
31
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22W
SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22W
SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23W
SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23Ian Machado GarryW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Neil Magny · Aug 23W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Shavkat RakhmonovMetricIan Machado Garry
3.25
Strikes / min
4.78
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
51%
Strike defense
52%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
0.92
85%
Takedown defense
80%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Shavkat RakhmonovIan Machado Garry
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+23.8-23.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Shavkat Rakhmonov
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7
Ian Machado Garry
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8