Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 3, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsAndrei Arlovski: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(52.5%)
Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Andrei Arlovski has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stefan Struve has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Stefan Struve
Red Corner
VS
Andrei Arlovski
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
38
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'11"
Height
6'3"
213.36 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stefan StruveMetricAndrei Arlovski
3.12
Strikes / min
3.82
4.04
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
46%
Strike defense
57%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.37
55%
Takedown defense
76%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stefan StruveAndrei Arlovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stefan Struve(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.0-31.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Stefan Struve
StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20
Andrei Arlovski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27