Welterweight
3 Rounds
Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Belal Muhammad has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Stephen Thompson
Red Corner
VS
Belal Muhammad
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
43
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Belal MuhammadL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22W
vs Gilbert Burns · May 23W
vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricBelal Muhammad
4.05
Strikes / min
4.43
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.82
54%
Strike defense
55%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
2.14
63%
Takedown defense
90%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stephen ThompsonBelal Muhammad
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-25.125.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21
Belal Muhammad
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20