Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gabriel Bonfim won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 12, 2025·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsGabriel Bonfim: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(53.4%)
Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Stephen Thompson
Red Corner
VS
Gabriel Bonfim
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-430
(81%)
43
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24Gabriel BonfimW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Trevin Giles · Jul 23L
KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 23W
vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24W
SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25W
KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricGabriel Bonfim
4.05
Strikes / min
4.61
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
54%
Strike defense
63%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
3.60
63%
Takedown defense
76%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stephen ThompsonGabriel Bonfim
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Gabriel Bonfim(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.3-5.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21
Gabriel Bonfim
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7