Welterweight
5 Rounds
Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, December 19, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Geoff Neal has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Stephen Thompson
Red Corner
VS
Geoff Neal
Blue Corner
-103
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-117
(54%)
43
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricGeoff Neal
4.05
Strikes / min
5.02
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
5.50
54%
Strike defense
57%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.54
63%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stephen ThompsonGeoff Neal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.5-10.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14