Welterweight
3 Rounds
Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 5, 2024·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Stephen Thompson
Red Corner
VS
Joaquin Buckley
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
43
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Joaquin Buckley
oldest →latest
W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 23W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricJoaquin Buckley
4.05
Strikes / min
3.62
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
54%
Strike defense
58%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
1.43
63%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stephen ThompsonJoaquin Buckley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.012.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+147.0-147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21
Joaquin Buckley
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights16