Flyweight
3 Rounds
Steve Erceg won · U-DEC R3
SE
AC
Steve ErcegvsAlessandro Costa
UFC Event · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupSteve Erceg: Pressure fightervsAlessandro Costa: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(54.2%)
Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alessandro Costa has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Steve Erceg
Red Corner
VS
Alessandro Costa
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'4"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Steve Erceg
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Mar 24L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25W
vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25Alessandro Costa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Amir Albazi · Dec 22W
KOvs Jimmy Flick · Jun 23W
KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24L
KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Steve ErcegMetricAlessandro Costa
4.64
Strikes / min
3.73
4.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.72
55%
Strike defense
56%
1.13
TDs / 15 min
0.79
67%
Takedown defense
86%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.57evenly matched on net striking+0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Steve ErcegAlessandro Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Steve Erceg(7 fights)Alessandro Costa(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.8-13.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Steve Erceg
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights7
Alessandro Costa
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6