Lightweight
3 Rounds
Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 9, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(64.7%)
Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Charlie Ontiveros has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Steve Garcia has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Steve Garcia has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charlie Ontiveros (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Steve Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Charlie Ontiveros
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
33
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Steve GarciaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23W
KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24W
vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25W
KOvs David Onama · Nov 25Charlie OntiverosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Oct 20L
KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Steve GarciaMetricCharlie Ontiveros
5.39
Strikes / min
1.89
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
5.86
59%
Strike defense
31%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
88%
Takedown defense
30%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.27Δ 7.24 — meaningful gap-3.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Steve GarciaCharlie Ontiveros
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Steve Garcia(10 fights)Charlie Ontiveros(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.92.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+245.0-245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Steve Garcia
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Charlie Ontiveros
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3