Featherweight
3 Rounds
Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 7, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(75.6%)
Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Steve Garcia has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (54.1%).
- Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Steve Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
33
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Steve GarciaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Apr 23W
KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23W
KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24W
vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25W
KOvs David Onama · Nov 25Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Steve GarciaMetricKyle Nelson
5.39
Strikes / min
3.60
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
59%
Strike defense
53%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
1.18
88%
Takedown defense
66%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.27Δ 4.25 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Steve GarciaKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Steve Garcia(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.7-41.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Steve Garcia
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11