Lightweight
3 Rounds
Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 9, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Melquizael Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Steve Garcia has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Steve Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
+500
(17%)
Vegas Odds
-810
(89%)
33
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Steve GarciaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Apr 23W
KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24W
vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25W
KOvs David Onama · Nov 25Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Steve GarciaMetricMelquizael Costa
5.39
Strikes / min
4.38
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
59%
Strike defense
54%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
2.00
88%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.27Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Steve GarciaMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Steve Garcia(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.1-17.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Steve Garcia
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9