Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jesus Aguilar won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 17, 2024·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Stewart Nicoll wins(67.5%)
Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jesus Aguilar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jesus Aguilar has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Stewart Nicoll
Red Corner
VS
Jesus Aguilar
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stewart Nicoll
oldest →latest
L
vs Lucas Rocha · Oct 25Jesus Aguilar
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stewart NicollMetricJesus Aguilar
3.63
Strikes / min
2.54
5.84
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
49%
Strike defense
61%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
1.52
28%
Takedown defense
45%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.21Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Stewart NicollJesus Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stewart Nicoll(2 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.915.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.4-49.4
Stewart Nicoll
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights3
Jesus Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7