← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

7 days away

Elo1522

Elo1498

SumudaerjivsAlex PerezUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Saturday, August 29, 2026Shanghai, China

Fight begins in

Style matchupSumudaerji: Elusive strikervsAlex Perez: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

The model's pick for this fight is locked

Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez is on the undercard. Headliner picks are free — unlock the full card with a $9 monthly Fight Detective membership.

Unlock every pick — $9/month

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sumudaerji has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sumudaerji

Red Corner

Alex Perez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1522

Elo

1498

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sumudaerji

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Alex Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

SumudaerjiMetricAlex Perez

4.43

Strikes / min

4.41

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

62%

Strike defense

59%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

2.21

72%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08evenly matched on net striking+1.21

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sumudaerji(10 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.2|Blue -23.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: Submission.

KO / TKO40%

Historical win share: Alex Perez earned 50% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission60%

Historical win share: Alex Perez earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights17