Flyweight
3 Rounds
Sumudaerji won · U-DEC R3
SU
JA
SumudaerjivsJesus Aguilar
UFC Event · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSumudaerji: Elusive strikervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Sumudaerji wins(76.4%)
Actual result: Sumudaerji wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sumudaerji has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sumudaerji (53.5%).
- Sumudaerji has a 25cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Sumudaerji
Red Corner
VS
Jesus Aguilar
Blue Corner
-172
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+144
(41%)
30
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'4"
182.88 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
SumudaerjiW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Jul 22L
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23L
vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24W
vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25W
vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25Jesus Aguilar
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
SumudaerjiMetricJesus Aguilar
4.43
Strikes / min
2.54
2.35
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
62%
Strike defense
61%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
1.52
72%
Takedown defense
45%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.08Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
SumudaerjiJesus Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sumudaerji(6 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-40.140.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Sumudaerji
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6
Jesus Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7