Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tagir Ulanbekov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 18, 2025·Inglewood, California, USA, USA
Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsClayton Carpenter: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(57.4%)
Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Tagir Ulanbekov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).
- Tagir Ulanbekov has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tagir Ulanbekov
Red Corner
VS
Clayton Carpenter
Blue Corner
-390
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
34
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tagir Ulanbekov
oldest →latest
L
vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22W
SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23W
vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25L
SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25Clayton Carpenter
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23W
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tagir UlanbekovMetricClayton Carpenter
3.01
Strikes / min
3.88
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.47
50%
Strike defense
49%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
1.75
63%
Takedown defense
50%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.59
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tagir UlanbekovClayton Carpenter
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Clayton Carpenter(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.1-14.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+301.0-301.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tagir Ulanbekov
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights8
Clayton Carpenter
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights4