Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alexander Volkov won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 9, 2023·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsAlexander Volkov: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(54.4%)
Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Volkov has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
- Alexander Volkov has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Volkov
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-238
(70%)
33
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'7"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26Alexander Volkov
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 22W
KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Mar 23W
vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24W
vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tai TuivasaMetricAlexander Volkov
3.37
Strikes / min
4.84
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
42%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.54
58%
Takedown defense
68%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 3.18 — meaningful gap+1.94
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tai TuivasaAlexander Volkov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.632.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Tai Tuivasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Alexander Volkov
StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17