Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Marcin Tybura won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 16, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(54.2%)
Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Marcin Tybura has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Tybura
Blue Corner
-118
(54%)
Vegas Odds
-102
(50%)
33
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tai TuivasaMetricMarcin Tybura
3.37
Strikes / min
3.56
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
42%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.30
58%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tai TuivasaMarcin Tybura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-28.128.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Tai Tuivasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Marcin Tybura
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24