Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2022·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
33
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
213.36 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 22L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26Sergei PavlovichW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tai TuivasaMetricSergei Pavlovich
3.37
Strikes / min
4.43
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
42%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.48
58%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tai TuivasaSergei Pavlovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.7-7.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Tai Tuivasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Sergei Pavlovich
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights11