Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Serghei Spivac won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 5, 2019·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(53.3%)
Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Serghei Spivac has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
33
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26Serghei Spivac
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tai TuivasaMetricSerghei Spivac
3.37
Strikes / min
3.57
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
42%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.82
58%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24evenly matched on net striking-0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tai TuivasaSerghei Spivac
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.2-26.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.7-1.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Tai Tuivasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Serghei Spivac
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15