Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Takeya Mizugaki won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 2, 2013·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsBryan Caraway: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(51.8%)
Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Takeya Mizugaki
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Caraway
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15W
vs George Roop · Sep 15L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Takeya MizugakiMetricBryan Caraway
3.37
Strikes / min
2.53
3.27
Strikes absorbed / min
3.61
57%
Strike defense
54%
1.46
TDs / 15 min
2.57
70%
Takedown defense
80%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Takeya MizugakiBryan Caraway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.016.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Takeya Mizugaki
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Bryan Caraway
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10