Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 25, 2012·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
- Takeya Mizugaki has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Takeya Mizugaki
Red Corner
VS
Chris Cariaso
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'3"
175.26 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15W
vs George Roop · Sep 15L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Takeya MizugakiMetricChris Cariaso
3.37
Strikes / min
3.35
3.27
Strikes absorbed / min
2.23
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.46
TDs / 15 min
1.11
70%
Takedown defense
57%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Takeya MizugakiChris Cariaso
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Takeya Mizugaki
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13