Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Talita Alencar won · SUB R3
TA
AC
Talita AlencarvsAriane Carnelossi
UFC Event · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Talita Alencar wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Talita Alencar wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Talita Alencar has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Talita Alencar
Red Corner
VS
Ariane Carnelossi
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'2"
147.32 cm
Reach
154.94 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Talita Alencar
oldest →latest
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · Dec 23L
vs Stephanie Luciano · Aug 24W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Apr 25Ariane Carnelossi
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Angela Hill · Sep 19W
KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21W
SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21L
vs Loopy Godinez · May 22W
vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Talita AlencarMetricAriane Carnelossi
3.09
Strikes / min
2.63
3.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
51%
Strike defense
44%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
1.08
66%
Takedown defense
22%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.58Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-1.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Talita AlencarAriane Carnelossi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Talita Alencar(4 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-322.0322.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Talita Alencar
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach58.0"
Fights4
Ariane Carnelossi
StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights6