Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 6, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsChris Duncan: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Terrance McKinney enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Chris Duncan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Terrance McKinney has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Terrance McKinney has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Terrance McKinney
Red Corner
VS
Chris Duncan
Blue Corner
+108
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-126
(56%)
31
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Terrance McKinneyW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Brendon Marotte · Oct 23L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26Chris DuncanW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Terrance McKinneyMetricChris Duncan
6.53
Strikes / min
4.83
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
43%
Strike defense
50%
3.31
TDs / 15 min
2.92
72%
Takedown defense
55%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.08Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Terrance McKinneyChris Duncan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Chris Duncan(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.924.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Terrance McKinney
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13
Chris Duncan
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8