Lightweight
3 Rounds
Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(67.1%)
Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Kyle Nelson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Terrance McKinney
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+118
(46%)
31
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Terrance McKinney
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Brendon Marotte · Oct 23L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Terrance McKinneyMetricKyle Nelson
6.53
Strikes / min
3.60
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
43%
Strike defense
53%
3.31
TDs / 15 min
1.18
72%
Takedown defense
66%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.08Δ 4.06 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Terrance McKinneyKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.5-14.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Terrance McKinney
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11