Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Hector Lombard has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).
- Thales Leites has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thales LeitesL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18 Hector LombardL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16L
KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16L
vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thales LeitesMetricHector Lombard
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thales LeitesHector Lombard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thales Leites(10 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +124.0|Blue -124.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thales LeitesTargetHector Lombard
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Hector Lombard edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:07
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Round 3Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control0:13
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
