Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19 John Howard
oldest →L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14L
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricJohn Howard
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.31Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago AlvesJohn Howard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)John Howard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -112.6|Blue +112.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago AlvesTargetJohn Howard
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns1
Control0:34
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control2:21
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:39Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
