Welterweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Alves won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2011·Birmingham, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsPapy Abedi: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Papy Abedi wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Papy Abedi (53.5%).
- Papy Abedi has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Alves
Red Corner
VS
Papy Abedi
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+305
(25%)
42
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18W
vs Max Griffin · Feb 19L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19Papy Abedi
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs James Head · Apr 12W
vs Besam Yousef · Apr 13L
KOvs Dylan Andrews · Aug 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricPapy Abedi
3.73
Strikes / min
2.80
3.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.15
62%
Strike defense
48%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
3.47
63%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago AlvesPapy Abedi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Papy Abedi(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.813.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.048.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Thiago Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Papy Abedi
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights4