Welterweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Alves won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 8, 2017·Buffalo, New York, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Patrick Cote wins(53.6%)
Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Thiago Alves has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Patrick Cote has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Alves
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Cote
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
42
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18W
vs Max Griffin · Feb 19L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19Patrick Cote
oldest →latest
L
vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14W
vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricPatrick Cote
3.73
Strikes / min
2.81
3.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
62%
Strike defense
48%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.68
63%
Takedown defense
43%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago AlvesPatrick Cote
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Patrick Cote(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.436.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Thiago Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Patrick Cote
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12