Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 28, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupThiago Alves: Well-roundedvsRick Story: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(61.9%)
Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Alves
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18W
vs Max Griffin · Feb 19L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19Rick Story
oldest →latest
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricRick Story
3.73
Strikes / min
3.80
3.42
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
62%
Strike defense
62%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
2.53
63%
Takedown defense
63%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago AlvesRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-52.752.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Thiago Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16