Welterweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Alves won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 19, 2014·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(55.5%)
Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Thiago Alves has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Seth Baczynski has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Alves
Red Corner
VS
Seth Baczynski
Blue Corner
-480
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+423
(19%)
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18W
vs Max Griffin · Feb 19L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19Seth BaczynskiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricSeth Baczynski
3.73
Strikes / min
3.08
3.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
62%
Strike defense
51%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.89
63%
Takedown defense
48%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago AlvesSeth Baczynski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-47.147.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+614.0-614.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Thiago Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Seth Baczynski
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11