Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gauge Young won · Decision R3
Elo1499
Elo1504
Thiago MoisesvsGauge Young
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(56.3%)
Scouting Report
- Gauge Young has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Moises
Gauge Young
—
Vegas Odds
—
1499
1504
31
26
Orthodox
Orthodox
5'9"
5'9"
177.8 cm
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Thiago Moises
oldest →
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25
latestGauge Young
oldest →
vs Evan Elder · Apr 25
vs Maheshate · Aug 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Thiago MoisesMetricGauge Young
2.52
Strikes / min
6.32
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
5.12
52%
Strike defense
49%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.75
52%
Takedown defense
76%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Thiago MoisesGauge Young
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Gauge Young
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2