Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(54.1%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Joel Alvarez has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
31
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricJoel Alvarez
2.52
Strikes / min
4.53
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.18
52%
Takedown defense
46%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago MoisesJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.94.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-266.0266.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10